The Coming Wave is a clear-eyed view of the extraordinary opportunities and genuine risks ahead.
When people ask me about artificial intelligence, their questions often boil down to this: What should I be worried about, and how worried should I be? For the past year, I’ve responded by telling them to read The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman. It’s the book I recommend more than any other on AI—to heads of state, business leaders, and anyone else who asks—because it offers something rare: a clear-eyed view of both the extraordinary opportunities and genuine risks ahead.
The author, Mustafa Suleyman, brings a unique perspective to the topic. After helping build DeepMind from a small startup into one of the most important AI companies of the past decade, he went on to found Inflection AI and now leads Microsoft’s AI division. But what makes this book special isn’t just Mustafa’s firsthand experience—it’s his deep understanding of scientific history and how technological revolutions unfold. He’s a serious intellectual who can draw meaningful parallels across centuries of scientific advancement.
Most of the coverage of The Coming Wave has focused on what it has to say about artificial intelligence—which makes sense, given that it’s one of the most important books on AI ever written. And there is probably no one as qualified as Mustafa to write it. He was there in 2016 when DeepMind’s AlphaGo beat the world’s top players of Go, a game far more complex than chess with 2,500 years of strategic thinking behind it, by making moves no one had ever thought of. In doing so, the AI-based computer program showed that machines could beat humans at our own game—literally—and gave Mustafa an early glimpse of what was coming.
But what sets his book apart from others is Mustafa’s insight that AI is only one part of an unprecedented convergence of scientific breakthroughs. Gene editing, DNA synthesis, and other advances in biotechnology are racing forward in parallel. As the title suggests, these changes are building like a wave far out at sea—invisible to many but gathering force. Each would be game-changing on its own; together, they’re poised to reshape every aspect of society.
The historian Yuval Noah Harari has argued that humans should figure out how to work together and establish trust before developing advanced AI. In theory, I agree. If I had a magic button that could slow this whole thing down for 30 or 40 years while humanity figures out trust and common goals, I might press it. But that button doesn’t exist. These technologies will be created regardless of what any individual or company does.
As is, progress is already accelerating as costs plummet and computing power grows. Then there are the incentives for profit and power that are driving development. Countries compete with countries, companies compete with companies, and individuals compete for glory and leadership. These forces make technological advancement essentially unstoppable—and they also make it harder to control.
In my conversations about AI, I often highlight three main risks we need to consider. First is the rapid pace of economic disruption. AI could fundamentally transform the nature of work itself and affect jobs across most industries, including white-collar roles that have traditionally been safe from automation. Second is the control problem, or the difficulty of ensuring that AI systems remain aligned with human values and interests as they become more advanced. The third risk is that when a bad actor has access to AI, they become more powerful—and more capable of conducting cyber-attacks, creating biological weapons, even compromising national security.
This last risk—of empowering bad actors—is what leads to the biggest challenge of our time: containment. How do we limit the dangers of these technologies while harnessing their benefits? This is the question at the heart of The Coming Wave, because containment is foundational to everything else. Without it, the risks of AI and biotechnology become even more acute. By solving for it first, we create the stability and trust needed to tackle everything else.
Of course, that’s easier said than done.
While previous transformative technologies like nuclear weapons could be contained through physical security and strict access controls, AI and biotech present a fundamentally different challenge. They’re increasingly accessible and affordable, their development is nearly impossible to detect or monitor, and they can be used behind closed doors with minimal infrastructure. Outlawing them would mean the good guys unilaterally disarm while bad actors forge ahead anyway. And it would hurt everyone because these technologies are inherently dual-use. The same tools that could be used to create biological weapons could also cure diseases; the same AI that could be used for cyber-attacks could also strengthen cyber defense.
So how do we achieve containment in this new reality? It’s hardly fair to complain that Mustafa hasn’t single-handedly solved one of the most complex problems humanity has ever faced. Still, he lays out an agenda that’s appropriately ambitious for the scale of the challenge—ranging from technical solutions (like building an emergency off switch for AI systems) to sweeping institutional changes, including new global treaties, modernized regulatory frameworks, and historic cooperation among governments, companies, and scientists. When you finish his list of recommendations, you might wonder if we can really accomplish all this in time. But that’s precisely why this book is so important: It helps us understand the urgency while there’s still time to act.
I’ve always been an optimist, and reading The Coming Wave hasn’t changed that. I firmly believe that advances in AI and biotech could help make breakthrough treatments for deadly diseases, innovative solutions for climate change, and high-quality education for everyone a reality. But true optimism isn’t about blind faith. It’s about seeing both the upsides and the risks, then working to shape the outcomes for the better.
Whether you’re a tech enthusiast, a policymaker, or someone simply trying to understand where the world is heading, you should read this book. It won’t give you easy answers, but it will help you ask the right questions—and leave you better prepared to ride the coming wave, instead of getting swept away by it.
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